Covid-19 Reversing?

Covid-19 is a little bit like diabetes right now as there is no vaccine or cure for either but both can be reversed and kept under control through discipline and diligence. Diabetic control can always be reversed (improved) through better control of diet, insulin or other medications and exercise while Covid-19 requires physical distancing, frequent hand washing and improved general disinfecting of surfaces. Have we reached the point where we have started reversing Covid-19 in the US? Maybe!! Yesterday was the first day since March 4th that the daily number of USA new cases dropped from their peak on March 20 of 5594 to 4824 on March 21. One day of course does not a trend make but at least is the first glimmer of hope in the past 2 ½ weeks.

I believe that the daily cases have largely grown so exponentially in the past couple of weeks due to additional testing which is mostly a reflection of the population that has unknowingly had cases, but were not recorded because without testing there was no way of knowing for sure. My reasoning is that about 1 week ago, the percentage of deaths in the US due to the virus was at about 2% of total virus cases and today that has dropped to 1.3% and as we do more testing, I expect the number of cases to keep growing while the mortality rate keeps dropping.

Much more important is that for 2 consecutive days, the daily number of US Covid deaths has dropped from its peak of 57 deaths on March 19th to 49 deaths on March 20th to 46 deaths on March 21. Again, 2 days does not a trend make but may indicate much better times may be in the very near future.

Reversal of Covid-19, of course is similar to reversal of diabetes. As we show daily improvement, we must remain vigilant and keep doing everything we did to start the reversal process in a sufficient manner to continue the trend. Otherwise, like diabetes we can easily get on the roller coaster trends we are all too familiar with.

Stay Safe and if this reversal trend does not continue tomorrow, it will be back and we shall overcome sooner rather than later.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I think it is being incredibly optimistic to read anything into these numbers.

There were more cases a few days ago because the government rolled out a massive testing program.

The Trump administration warned that we may see a dramatic increase in the number of cases. We should be aware that part of what was contributing to that is simply the new availability of tests.

It appears that some cities are beginning to advocate against testing because it may contribute to a shortage in medical supplies.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-21-20-intl-hnk/h_78c431662464112a27434663a0860cdc

As for the deaths, the virus has an incubation period of 2-14 days, but it looks like most people see symptoms around 4-5 days in. I do not know what what the average time frame among those who die is from the onset of symptoms. But both the incubation period and that should factor into any analysis of a trend in deaths. As well as the date social distancing began.

I really think that gaining any hope from this is really premature. We’ve already had 47 deaths today, up from 46 yesterday (per the source you linked). All indications are that there are major concerns about NYC right now as indicated by the governor and mayor.

It may be true that smaller communities that employed social distancing early on have managed to flatten the curve already.

Edit: now we’re at 86 today. Double yesterday’s counts.

1 Like

If you look at Italy’s numbers, there are numerous instances where cases and deaths appeared to level out or decrease for two or three days before skyrocketing again.

According to Worldometers coronavirus website, the us has 8149 new cases so far today. :grimacing:

Remember, those tests take a week to process, give or take depending on how efficient the labs are. You’re seeing LAST WEEK’s numbers. We have no clue about new cases today, yet.

1 Like

Nope. Its just started. Expect to stay in hiding 1-2 months. Then re-evaluate.

One thing that might help is to recognize that the “population” of data that you are trying to estimate is the entire United States (that’s a big number) over a year. The “sample size” of tested cases so super small in comparison, and so very likely have sampling bias, that any analysis is bordering on ridiculous. This is just starting. The flu lasts, as we all know from experience, for months, not weeks.

Things don’t always behave according to a normal curve.

I appreciate your optimism, though.

This is what we’re being told in Canada. It’s just getting started. It’ll get worse before it starts to get better. Current measures will be in place for months. Possibly even up to a year. There may be multiple waves of the virus.

It’s so hard to tell exactly how things will unfold. But we have just entered a tunnel that will become dark for a period of time before we begin to glimpse the light at the end.

1 Like

Yea, so Jen’s mentioning that it might have more of a sinusoidal behavior that looks like this. Thats good to be aware of.

image

We also dont know the impact of our interventions. So, we might be able to impact spread in the coming weeks with safety measures, but we certainly wont see that data for a while. Or, our efforts might not do crap. Gotta learn by experiement.