Great stats, edging toward lows

I’ve been here before. I’ve arrived at what I consider my ideal day but trouble lurks on the horizon. Why can’t we just enjoy the positive side?
The sensor is now at about 10 days and it’s starting to overshoot on the low side. For the morning calibration it was spot on but when I started to go low in the afternoon, like in the 70s, the sensor started to report 50s. I let it ride for a bit but it was not pulling up. I calibrated, but instead of reporting a higher number, it reported a lower number. This is when I’d like to be able to talk to a Dexcom algorithm expert to make some sense of why the program does what it does.
So I probably over-calibrated in the afternoon but the sensor line finally came back in line with my fingersticks. As a result, my time low numbers, numbers < 65 mg/dl, is over-reported today at = 6% when it’s really around 3-4% at most.
So, I said that trouble lurks on the horizon. What I mean is that looking over the last few days, while they have been very good, the slow trend is toward lower numbers overall. That, of course, is good to a point but can go too far. What I’ve learned in the past is that I need to start tweaking my basal rates or I’ll be faced with taking aggressive counteraction (eating glucose-tabs).
The trouble time is the afternoon, starting around 2 p.m. That means I’ll need to back off my basal rates starting at noon. Here’s my basal profile for that time of day:
11:00 a.m. - 0.9 units/hour
1:00 p.m. - 0.4 units/hour
5:00 p.m. - 0.5 units/hour
I will just make one adjustment today. I’ll change the 1 p.m. 0.4 units/hour to start at noon instead. I’ll watch and see what happens. I’ve found with basal rate changes that baby steps are better and changing one thing at a time makes analysis easier. We’ll see.
Overall, this was an excellent day! What’s not to like about a day with an 83 mg/dl average with 94% time in range and a 13 mg/dl standard deviation? That means that about 2/3 of my readings fell in the 70-96 mg/dl range.
The numbers
Time in Range = 94%
Time low = 6% (really about 3-4% according to my fingersticks)
Standard Deviation = 13 mg/dl
Average = 83 mg/dl