Covid calculators

I have no idea how accurate, just found it interesting information.

Risk factor of covid, the first I’ve seen that separates out well controlled diabetes.

https://covid19risktools.com:8443/riskcalculator

Place in line calculator to get a vaccine

I am honestly surprised. I plugged in my height/weight/age (over 50… a bit overweight), zip code, that I have diabetes (“well controlled”) and treated hypertension, and it tells me the good news below. I was fully expecting a much more dire risk estimate.

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My score was the same, not surprised.

1,600 in front of me. Better than the NYT’s calculator. It helps to be old and have heart stents. I also live in an area without a lot of people.

I’m skeptical about both the risk calculator and the vaccine priority calculator. I am going with my endo’s conclusion from mid-summer: She said if I am infected with Covid, 50-50 chance I land in the hospital. I am 64, in otherwise good health, A1c always in the range of 6.0-6.3. There were some research papers that seemed to back up her conclusion.

The vaccine priority calculator does not factor the nuances that are contained in CDC guidelines or various state policies. Many states have not finalized their vaccine prioritization beyond Phase 1a. Type 2 vs. Type 1 diabetes is included in the CDC guidelines but “control” is not. The prioritization of various so called essential workers is still up in the air, and lobbyists are pushing for their clients in every state capital.

There’s also the wildcard of groups ahead of us in priority who don’t show up for the vaccine, effectively shortening the line of people in front of us.

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I am curious if you have a reference to those CDC guidelines. I found a couple state guidelines that seem to prioritize T2’s ahead of T1’s and there may be good reason for that (e.g. average age). But this seems to completely ignore all the other gradations in how we talk about diabetes control.

For example Pennsylvania puts Type 2’s in Phase 1c, and older Type 1’s in Phase 2, see here: https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/Documents/Programs/Immunizations/Vaccine%20Plan%20V.3%20FINAL.pdf

Here in our tudiabetes discussions we discuss so many different fine-tuning gradations in control and associated health conditions. And all that seems to be completely ignored in any vaccination recommendation bullet point I’ve seen. Go figure.

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It’s very odd this website is running on port 8443. That alone does not lend confidence to the website. That is the type of thing you might do on a development/testing server.

Here is the CDC guidance regarding Type 2 and Type 1:

The JDRF and some researchers are trying to get Type 1 moved up in priority:

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I get the consistent impression that they really aren’t aiming to be all that fine-grained, and that may be just because it doesn’t make sense to be. My guess would be that beyond a certain point, increases in the resolution of who gets it when probably just get lost in the noise. The aim is to get it to everyone asap, so the increments between the priority blocks are just too big for some of this stuff to matter in terms of when you’re actually going to get it. I think it’s an example of how giving precise numerical values to things that aren’t really that precise to begin with is more misleading than helpful.

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I was again questioned by my insurer Kaiser Permanente.
They asked if I am a frontline or essential worker
If I have any of the conditions listed , diabetes was one box. No types.
And then asked my blood type it I know it.

Of course I have heard that type A often suffer more complications from covid and of course I am type A

But I have not heard anyone suggesting it will matter in the queue of vaccinations.

They never tell you in these questionnaires.

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The key will be where we are prioritized relative to so-called essential industries. In CA for example 12 million people work in essential industries.

My uncle is getting vacc-ed shortly in CA. He’s a prison nurse who gives insulin to all their diabetics.

@Tim12, Good info. You guys have great intel here…
States are publishing what they want to do, but the Feds own the vaccine and will ask them to adhere to CDC guidelines before shipping them the vaccine. I think that CDC is still figuring things out.

I think that the primary variable at play is HOW MUCH vaccine is available at any given time. I think that they will attempt to do a group of people in their entirety. Which groups get selected is prob just a practical calculation based on the size of that group and the morbidity/mortality stats/incidence of infection stats.

They have only JUST started trials on pregnant women. So, even if they were a high priority group, they are far down in the line.

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Here’s an article about Canada…
People with chronic diseases don’t know if they get COVID-19 vaccine priority | CBC News

Here is the health policy guidance in UK:

"1. residents in a care home for older adults and their carers
2. all those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers
3. all those 75 years of age and over
4. all those 70 years of age and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals[footnote 1]
5. all those 65 years of age and over
6. all individuals aged 16 years to 64 years with underlying health conditions which put them at higher risk of serious disease and mortality
7. all those 60 years of age and over
8. all those 55 years of age and over
9. all those 50 years of age and over

It is estimated that taken together, these groups represent around 99% of preventable mortality from COVID-19."
Priority groups for coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination: advice from the JCVI, 2 December 2020 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

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This new mutation makes me mad. Mutation is my greatest fear.
My sister in law just flew to FR yesterday and its in UK.

This comment on an article about vaccine availability is a real keeper:

If you did not wear a mask for the last 6 months…let me show you to your spot in line…no keep walking, a little further, nope not there yet. Keep going I will let you know…ah there is the end of the line and your place.

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New mutation is 70% more contagious. So, while a mask has never been enough to cut it, its even less of enough, now. You gotta stay away from other people. There will be rapid spread to the US with Christmas.

P.S. RadioLab has some fun covid radio stories.

It mutated a bunch several times very early on. I believe at one time they thought that a mutation that spread faster is what hit New York originally? So I can see a new mutation that spreads even faster having developed again. It strikes so many people I think that makes it very easy to keep making mutations.

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That T2s are more susceptible is considered proven. That T1s are more susceptible has insufficient evidence where T1s and T2s are broken out separately. I presume the difference is due to fewer T1s that T2s making numbers too small such that T1 does clear statistics hurdle. So the priority for T1s would seem to depend on whether the state prioritizes diabetes as a group or separates T1s and T2s. If risk is due to hyperglycemia, then separating T1s from T2s doesn’t make sense.

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Regardless of how CDC used small number of cases to downgrade the Covid risk for Type 1s, there is no defense of their recommendation to move Type 1s younger than 65 to the back of the line. It makes no sense. The interim time of 4-6 months while we wait for everybody else to get vaccinated will actually be more risky. The prioritization strategy is medical bureaucracy at its worst.

One example: teachers are near the front of the line. Presumably so the schools can re open. But the teachers union in my area has already decided they will not re open schools until fall 2021 and they have not budged from that plan. Why are they in Phase 1b if the plan is to continue working from home?

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I got the notification for January 15-Feb 15, but I’m in a big group so it’s first come first serve. I expect there will be a long queue. We will register online and get a time to appear. However if you don’t show up, you will have to wait till the “all members”
Group which is everyone who’s not frontline, essential, or underlying medical conditions.
I am so ready to be done with this covid crap, it makes my teeth itch.
I want to have a bond fire for masks, but if I do they will make a new mask mandate and I’ll have to buy more.

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