Virus Risk Calculator

I came across this in an article and found it to be the best of the ones I sampled. It includes location, behavior, and health indicators:

Description

Calculator

Sample

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Rad, James!!!

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That’s interesting, @JamesIgoe. I wondered at first if a low score or a high score was better. Mine was 40%, so I interpret that I have a 40% risk of catching Covid-19. I recalculated my score with unchecking the underlying medical conditions box and the score dropped to 29%. If this calculator makes good assumptions, the increased aggregate risk of my diabetes, heart disease, and hypertension is 11%.

I then went back again and left my underlying medical conditions boxes checked and then unchecked the hand washing and face-covering box and my score increased to 54%. If true, that 14% absolute increase in risk seems a good trade-off to me. I also value the protective benefit that my mask-wearing that accrues to people I encounter on the street, grocery store and public transit.

I got a 40 percent also. Extremely low percentages there…!!

I think the score is an index rather than a percentage, on a scale of 100, since it does not directly align with any of the numbers.

For myself, I can see the risk of contracting it in a week is vanishingly small, at .005%, but if I got sick from COVID - what If I was asymptomatic? - my risk of hospitalization is 60%, the risk of ICU is 22% and the risk of death is 5%.

I’ll go back to see if I can clarify, since I can see how it can be confusing.

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This is the answer…

We wanted to design the risk score like a credit score, a semi-quantitative metric that can be used to inform actions. Although we cannot provide individuals with a precise sense of their risk, we can indicate the general risk level for people living in the same community who are the same age, sex, and health status, and have similar behaviors. We centered the score around 50. If the risk score is between 1 and 30, users get a message saying the level of risk for people with similar characteristics and behavior is currently low but encouraging them to review the CDC planning guidance to make sure they are prepared. If the risk score is between 30 and 70, users are directed to the CDC resources on how to protect themselves and others from COVID-19. If the risk score is above 70, the message lets them know the risk score is serious and encourages them to avoid exposure, practice good hygiene, and read additional CDC resources on disease prevention.

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I received a score of 39 which I think is very high for my situation. My husband and I have seen almost no one close up for 6 months. It is good that we really like one another. Our groceries are delivered and our pharmaceuticals are delivered curbside while wearing a mask and face shield. We immediately use hand sanitizers.

Having played with this a bit, I suspect 39 is a relatively low score for anyone who is a senior (you are right?) and has pre-existing conditions. I bet if you increased your contact numbers (from functionally just each other), it would go up a lot.

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Your numbers are like mine, and in the same way, I am actually at very low risk because of all the precautions we take, but, at least by the calculator, my risk is moderately high when judged by the people in the same zip code and demographic. It’s a balance of the variables, our personal actions, our health risks, and our location.

A true low scorer would be taking precautions, live in a low-risk area, have better demographics, e.g., young and female, and have no pre-existing conditions.

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We live half of the time at our beach house in another state. I put in the zip code for that house and brought my number down to 25. Our main residence is on a mountain 5 miles from town. We have no close neighbors, so I feel safe even though I am 69, have 2 heart stents, well controlled hypertension, and very well controlled type 1 diabetes.

My chances are very poor for living through this disease, if I am hospitalized.

Oh, I do realize that, I just didn’t like seeing the number. :grin:

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Do you check off “yes” for “diabetes” even if you’re type one? Because when you see it undifferentiated like that it’s usually just synonymous with type 2, and my understanding is that the risks are greater for t2 than t1.

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Good question, but I was experimenting with the calculator, and it did not make much difference in the risk score, 47 vs 43, but it made a significant difference in the % risk of hospitalization, ICU, and death.

Another question, regarding BP, is does it matter how well controlled it is?

Minor mention, but I emailed the developers, and left a question in GitHub for them. Waiting on an answer.

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I got a 57. Had to fake my zip code with the nearby Butte Montana.

Is there a prize? :rofl::rofl:

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i came up with 10,954.00 But I always like to excel at my work. :slight_smile:

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They responded on GitHub (link and image below), and looking over what they provided, ‘controlled’ converts to an A1c under 7.5, and that risk is closer to non-diabetic than it is to the uncontrolled A1c. My intuition is that Type 1’s that are exceptionally well-controlled, or simply well-controlled, i.e., HbA1c under 7.0, might feel free to not check the Diabetes option.

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My major worry is my glucose levels being overlooked, if the hospital is busy with other cases of the virus. If I am too sick to control my levels, I can’t be sure that they would be controlled.

I am happy though with the response you received.

I’m not sure that glucose levels would be my first concern if I were hospitalized due to Covid-19 @Marilyn6

Are there research papers linking BG control (hba1c or TIR) to risk of hospitalization or death risk for Type 1s?? My intuition is that good BG control for a Type 1 is a temporary condition, which would no longer apply if I was flat on my back in a hospital bed.

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