Running out of projects. That’s bad. Everything is about staying busy.
This time of night, when things are quiet, is a time for stewing.
Covid is like being at sea, but I don’t want to be lost at sea indefinitely.
The indefiniteness is what makes people jump out of the raft, attacking sharks with a pocket knife.
I wanna know - are we at sea for another 8 weeks or another 8 months?
What’s your best guess?
Apologies in advance but I too am getting bummed out by the whole pandemic and all of it’s side effects.
Invent a project for the long haul…I’m expecting more of the same until spring, whether a vaccine comes out or not. Meaning a steady drip of worsening COVID numbers or numbers that don’t appreciably get anywhere close to the goals.
I have a guess based on nothing scientific except human nature: As winter comes on, almost everybody who catches a low grade head cold will get a COVID test, and X percent of them (who never would have got tested in July/August) will be positive. Probably the people who don’t bother getting vaccinated but feel invincible based on TV news or FB. It’s my guess that this will cause the number of cases to stay high for a long time.
I just don’t see how a vaccine will be enough to make us diabetics safe outside our bunkers unless it is one heck of a great vaccine, at least until spring.
There’s a hard frost tonight. There will be much stewing.
Somebody needs to read the next chapters of Gulag Archipelago into audio format for Audible. Do one of you have a good radio voice? It needs a male voice. This is the Winter for that book. That is the book for when you are trapped somewhere in the winter with no hope of release.
My personal guess is the pandemic will go on for a couple years because many will decide not to get the vaccine.
I think for those that do get the vaccine it will mostly be over for them 3-4 weeks after getting it.
I also think doctors/researchers will continue to find better therapeutics to improve recovery and reduce chance of death has they have already. So it will hopefully continue to get less deadly and more manageable over time.
Nothing has been announced but vaccines will likely be given out based on need before just anyone can get them.
Examples of who might get it sooner:
This is all my own personal best guess.
I’m expecting around Spring things will start getting better and keep getting better at a steady rate for however long it takes to get completely back to normal.
To me normal will be when we can all go out with out mask, stop working from home, and visit with friends without concerns.
This pandemic is kind of like diabetes. We’re all tired of it but we have no choice but to deal with it the best we can.
Not sure what the weather is like where you are but I find going out side for a walk a few times a day very helpful.
I started renovating an old house this spring, which turned out to be a blessing in disguise. When the lockdown started I could work solo on demolition, and I had multiple pickup truck loads stockpiled to bring to the dump after the dump opened up again. Spent much of the summer doing something nobody in their right mind would do in normal times: Up on a scaffold sanding a vaulted ceiling. All the things that I originally planned to hire a contractor for (like hanging drywall, putting down new floors etc) are on my winter to-do list. I call it my quarantine project. It passes the time and is saving me a ton of money by doing it myself. Truly sweat equity.
I joined a type 1 hiking group. I really like it and it gets me outside and communing with real people. In this case it’s mostly type 1 and friends and spouses. We all wear masks but it’s possible to keep some distance and still talk and have that social thing we are all missing.
That being said, I’m still working and I go in every day, so I don’t even know how isolating it is for most people.
I don’t know if there is a hiking group near you or maybe you can start one. I think it’s a fantastic way to get a break.
I think if it goes on that long, we’re looking at another 7-10 year recession, just like after 9/11? I think we have too many people living on the edge for that. That’s a recipe for guaranteed civil unrest. Countries like Iran and North Korea will simply be knocked into the Stone Age. It will knock down the global population by a bit, which will be good for everyone in the long run, on the upside.
Yes, @Timothy, it is good to go walking. I will keep doing that through the winter. That will be critical through the cold months.
Its like you can see all the people living on the very, very edge have already floated to the surface. They are all the fentanyl addicts that might have been living on a couch somewhere, but have been kicked out as resources got tight. They were the 1st out. I think those people make up most of the homeless camps that have emerged. There’s a LOT of them and they will not survive the winter.
Now, slightly below the surface are a lot of mentally ill being supported by family. They are on the line next - all they have to do is get sick and they are on the street. But, there are also a lot of friends taking in entire family’s of friends because of housing costs and that’s not gonna last forever as resources get thinner.
On Madness As Relief
People are always selling the idea that people with mental illness are suffering. I think madness can be an escape If things are not so good, you maybe want to imagine something better.
JOHN NASH
Its the suicides, Tony.
Christmas is suicide season, not now.
I remember how sad everyone got from the housing crisis.
This is different. This is really, really bad.
I feel like the Swedes are getting the Viking Berzerker Sydrome.
http://uppsalawayland.tripod.com/intermittentexplosivedisorderandtheberserkergang/
I live in South Florida and try to get out every day. I have walked my toy store, Homedepot, looking for something to do around the house. I wear my mask, use sanitizers, and wash my hands frequently. So far so good and I have maintained my tiny brain.
I’m in Santa Fe, NM. The pooch and I probably walk 3 hours per day. And my dog tends to be shy with many other dogs and most people … so is happy to cross the street when anyone approaches.
But, while we are all waiting for a good vaccine (I just looked and my “take a number and be seated” number is 1,346,582,043 …) there are some other encouraging things that are not vaccines in the works:
For instance:
and
While neither of these are likely to be on store shelves soon, it makes me feel better when I know that smart people are looking at innovative solutions.
Stay safe!
John
Get this! St Paul is running a pilot program to try out guaranteed income - $500 per month for 500 families. I’ve always wondered if this makes the price of everything go up or not.
An interesting remark, @mohe0001 . I was just playing with a graph on the St. Louis Fed website. I don’t understand why the Seasonally Adjusted CPI kept rising very consistently until Feb. 2020, and then after a very short dip started rising again.
What am I missing here?
Thanks.
M.
OMG, I have no idea, MapleSugar. You sound more economically minded than I.
I spoke with a gentleman (casually) from the Mayo, yesterday. He think 12-18 months left of all this.
What does that do to the economy?
High rates of inflation are inevitable with the way the US economy has trended for the last 20 years. I’m no economist but believe that the only way these trillions of dollars of federal and state debt will ever be paid off is when inflation grabs hold of the dollar.
By the way, the people hit the hardest by inflation are those on a fixed income, such as retirees and those living on a “guaranteed income”. So I look at the guaranteed income scheme as pandering for votes, that’s all it is.
I think guaranteed income is intended (in its original idea) to go to everybody - its a flat $500 that they would give to everyone in the state on a monthly basis. It doesn’t matter how much you make outside of that. Its a relatively old economic idea, now, but when it came out it was a big deal.
What I don’t understand is - if people know that everybody has that money, don’t they just bump up rents???
Vaccine may be helpful but it’s not a guarantee even in the words of Fauci on several occasions. It will plug some gaps and provide smoke and mirrors reducing the anxiety of public/government/business regardless of ultimate effectiveness.
The public likely already has immunity via genetic, age/health, and/or prior coronavirus exposure. Coronaviruses are endemic in the West.
Cell:
Host Polymorphisms May Impact SARS-CoV-2 Infectivity
British Medical Journal:
Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?
Nature:
SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells in healthy donors and patients with COVID-19
I, too take walks with friends and find them to be very therapeutic. However, I wanted to add into the mix the idea of taking an on-line class if financially able.
Because i work at a community college, I am able to take classes for free. I am now taking a gentle yoga class three mornings/week along with a chi gong class two mornings/week. It has been such a helpful way to start my day. Next week, I will also start an on-line salsa class for fun. FUN. Remember that concept?
Classes have been a wonderful antidote to thinking and despairing too much inside my head. Being able to passively receive the insructors’ directions and then simply follow them has been surprisingly rejuvenative. Plus my life is richer for adding in a new component. in my case, I needed to focus on relaxation. For everyone, what class you take will look different. You can also find a lot of on-line instruction for free as well. I now occasionally do some senior aerobics when I feel like i am jumping out of my skin. Having the elections and its aftermath behind me should also help. (-: This is also true for a vaccine, but the unknown aspects of reliability makes me cautious until the scientists have come up with something they feel truly confident about. My well-being can’t wait until then. Hang in there, everyone.
For some reason I can’t PM you. Can you PM me and then we can delete this comment.
I guess for me the timing couldn’t have been better. Going from working from home to out on medical leave. Since I can’t drive while on pain pills and neither can the rest of my family, we have to order stuff delivered and thus don’t get out much. I really want to get back to church, but am not sure I’m ready for that yet. The floors are that polished cement, and all it would take is one jostle or wet floor for me to fall. Thank God they are still putting them up live with Youtube and recordings if you want to watch later.
I feel that I missed the entire summer, though. I like to get out when it is nice. I would have like to go go for a swim in one of our 3 pools. Go to 6 flags. Go to the Zoo or other museums. Things like that. Maybe even a vacation.
I swear healthcare in the USA is totally screwed up. I don’t know what I would have done financially if I hadn’t already met my out of pocket max. And each employer has different rules on pay while you are out on medical leave. Mine gives 66 2/3 of your BASSE hourly pay, but I work 2nd shift and weekends plus get a monthly bonus, neither of which I’m getting, so this very first check that hit yesterday was actually about 1/2 of what I normally take home and will continue to be that low until such time as I’m cleared to go back sometime between mid November to mid December. While we need the money, I’m in no hurry to go back. They don’t offer part time or light duty, so I have to know that I know that I can sit at my kitchen table in a gaming computer chair for 10 hours strait 4 days in a row before I can even think about going back.
Vaccine wise, I think if one were available that had a track record of working without being rushed through the political games and could be guaranteed to NOT have a tracking chip in it, I’d do it. Otherwise I’ll wait.