Markets are surging on vaccine news

We got another one!!! We got another one, James!!! The Mayo guy just posted this on LinkedIn, in addition.

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This is the WW2 of chronic illness. It’s the super bowl of healthcare events. We got people living in tents and its gonna be -30 soon. There’s NO way I’m not excited for any positive news indicating the end of the war is coming. I think its an odd emotional response to not be enthusiastic about this. But, maybe people are afraid to get their hopes up prematurely - could be self protection. It took people a while to adapt to the idea of death flu. Might take a while to adapt to the idea of not having death flu. IDK. I think we gotta have these discussions because we are on the front lines.

When death flu came, we talked through it. We will do the same, now. No harm comes from talking. It helps. Its all good.

Its so rare that the illnesses we deal in are cured. Don’t you think this is an interesting case study. I don’t think that I have a lot of experience to help predict the span of emotional responses to this.

I’m painted head to toe in team colors and screaming in the stands - Touch down!!!

@Jim_in_Calgary,

Do you know why they compare the entire country of Canada to Wisconsin, as far as case counts? How can that be?!?!?! Does Wisconsin really suck that bad? Or, is Canada doing really well?

Since I couldn’t find the numbers in an easy table, here are the two maps as per capita. It usually isn’t accurate to count total numbers, since what matters is the per capita number, comparing like to like:

Canada is 6 times as large, so of course, its numbers are bigger, but it is proportionately safer…

Like to like:

  • Deaths per Million: Canada = 292 vs Wisconsin = 470
  • Death (Total): Canada = 11K vs Wisconsin 2.8K
  • Population: Canada = 37.6M vs Wisconsin = 5.8M

But maybe this is better, a direct comparison of provinces to states:

That’s interesting. Did you see this yet? I’ve already sworn off the grocery store during the next couple months. Its all non-perishable war food, again. I HATE THIS!!! I HATE WAR FOOD!!!

@Jim_in_Calgary, @JamesIgoe, @mohe0001, et al:

I keep an eye on the Covid numbers … you can’t spell geek without a EE! …

The way that I look at it, Canada is doing a great job compared to the US.

Country-wide, here are a couple of relevant numbers:

Cases: US has 4.2% of the world population and 20.0% of the total cases (which ranks third worst in terms of % Cases/% Population of the 100 countries that have more than 0.1% of the world population). Canada has 0.48% of the world population and 0.54% of the total cases (which is 35 in terms of % Cases/% Population).

In deaths, the US has 18.7% of the world deaths (which is ninth worst in terms of % Deaths/% Population). Canada has 0.83% of the worldwide deaths. This ranks them 23 in terms of % Deaths/% Population).

If you weight those two ratios 2:1 in terms of weighting % Death / % Pop to % Cases / % Pop, the US is the SECOND worst in the world (second only to Peru) and Canada is about 25th.

That is all based on data from Our World in Data as of 11/13/2020.

Comparing states to provinces, as of 11/16/2020, here is the % of each state’s or province’s population that have tested positive for Covid-19.

The top 5 in the US are:

North Dakota - 8.4%
South Dakota - 7.4%
Iowa - 5.9%
Wisconsin - 5.7%
Nebraska - 5.1%

For the provinces:

Quebec - 1.5%
Alberta - 0.97%
Manitoba - 0.86%
Ontario - 0.70 %
Saskatchewan - 0.46%

To me, the numbers are painfully and tragically clear: the US is almost the worst of ANY country in the world. Canada is doing dramatically better on a per capita basis …

Many are likely surprised at the top 5 states (per capita-wise) in the US. Where are NY and CA, you might ask … well down the list.

Note: the state and province data is from The NY Times, but you come to the same conclusions if you look at Johns Hopkins or CovidTracking.com.

Stay safe!

John

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NY was hard hit because it was one of the first, as well as its large number of people and the resulting density.

For myself, I mostly watch the R-0 and Rt values. I usually know weeks in advance when a lockdown is going to be threatened, since once it is trending up, and typically goes over 1.05, they need to pull people back. Recently, it’s gone way too far, and although they are thinking of closing schools, I have seen more scientific articles that it is restaurants that are the problem.

:canada:‘s numbers look good vs the US, but this hasn’t stopped our media from pushing the narrative that a tsunami of hospitalizations and deaths are on the way.

The province I live in now ranks 2nd worst in Canada for new cases per capita, with a positivity rate above 7% (3 months ago it was under 1%). Clearly new cases and hospitalization have risen dramatically,

On the bright side, even though the 2nd wave has caused upwards of 3-5 times as many new cases, our situation is far better than much of the US.

@Jim_in_Calgary:

Yes, Canada is certainly doing better than the US on a per capita basis … but that doesn’t mean that things are great in Canada.

Just to give you an idea of how bad things are here in the US: as of Nov 1, New Mexico (where I currently live) ranked about 32nd among percentage of citizens who had tested positive for Covid-19 with about 2.25% of the population having tested positive since March. We are on a pace that it appears as it 4.5% of the total population will have tested positive by Dec 1. In other words, we are likely to see as many new cases in November as we had over the entire course of the pandemic prior to November. As bad as that is, looking at per capita new cases over the past 7 days, New Mexico is only the 18th worst state!!! Yikes!!!

At the moment, about 6 of the 10 worst countries on a per capita basis are in the Southern Hemisphere because they just concluded their winter and flu season. But, Northern Hemisphere countries are beginning to push them aside. The US, UK, Mexico and Spain are already in the top ten … and France, Sweden and Italy will likely be in the top ten within a week.

If you look at the 10 worst countries in terms of % of world Covid deaths to % of world population, those 10 countries comprise only 12% of the world population, but they account for nearly 43% of the total cases and over 53% of the worldwide deaths. That is certainly a club that Canada does NOT want to join.

While cases in Canada are increasing rapidly, there are many countries that are outpacing you.

Stay safe!

John

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Very clear results for the 44,000 involved in the trial…

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from @Megtirrell

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OMG, Dolly Parton is such a nice person!

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@Jim_in_Calgary, They say that we will have vaccine schedules formally announced in 18-20 days (around Dec 10th). The will start vaccinating immediately. Recommendations will come from the CDC to the States and I believe they will follow those recommendations closley, whatever they are.

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It would be nice if the powers that be would get their act together on vaccination priorities/schedules…so those of us who plan to get vaccinated can plan ahead for once in this GD pandemic. They’ve only had 9 months to come up with something.

They know what they are gonna do. They say that they are waiting to tell us until the FDA approves. I guess they don’t want to get ahead of themselves. I feel the same as you. But, I guess they don’t want to supersede the FDA. Maybe that comes off like stepping on toes.

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I think Pfizer is a 2 shot system. Is Moderna 1 shot?

I heard take which ever u can get.

@typ1:

As I understand it, Moderna is also two shots … but at least doesn’t have the super-cold transport requirements that the Pfizer vaccine does.

A bit further away, I believe that the Oxford vaccine is also two shots, but the J&J offering only requires a single shot.

Stay safe!

John

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The state of WA does not list Type 1 as a co morbidity for the first phase of vaccination…but they list Type 2.

Does that seem right?

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@John58:

Thanks for posting that document. That is the first such document from a state DOH that I have seen and read.

While I am not an authority, that prioritization of T2 over T1 IS consistent with the consensus. as I recall it, when discussed on this forum a couple of months ago.

Stay safe!

John

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