Sam, it would be worth the time to look into this assumption of correlation. I’m not saying you’re right or wrong (I think the science is out and a bit split on this one, at the moment), and I don’t have an iron in this particular fire. I’m not overweight or Type 2, but… I was diagnosed as Type 2 because of my age and my doctor said, I kid you not, “you can blame yourself for putting on five lbs in the last few years.” I was 40 and had about 20% bodyfat at the time, so you can see how persistent the “overweight = diabetic” thing is. Anyhow, enough about me
Check out some of this stuff (sourced from CIA factbook and other online, easily found resources):
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Canada has about 70% the obesity rate as the US but almost exactly the same Type 2 rate. Canada’s current, estimated rate of diabetes in the population is 9.2% (with a 24.1% obesity rate). The US current estimated rate is 9.4% (with a 34.4% obesity rate). And the “increased diagnoses of diabetes” rate has parallelled that in the US over the last couple of decades.
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Type 2 diabetes rates vary significantly between ethnic groups, but don’t correlate cleanly with ethnic propensity to being overweight. SE Asians and Native N. Americans have the highest rates of Type 2 diabetes in the world, but they aren’t the most obese people in the world. Nor are C. Americans (also high diabetes rates). Meanwhile, the most prone-to-obesity ethnic group in the world (Polynesians) has a pretty low Type 2 diabetes rate.
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The rate of obesity in the US is growing faster than the rate of new Type 2 diabetes diagnoses.
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The primary actual correlation with Type 2 is age: if you get old enough, you will almost certainly develop at least Prediabetes, regardless of ethnicity, lifestyle, body type, etc. We see this even in successfully managed Type 2 cases: people lose weight, they eat low-carb, they take their medications, and as they get older their fasting BG rises higher and higher, and many end up on insulin…after they start adjusting lifestyle. It is also seen in non-diabetic elderly folks: an enormous number are diagnosed (if someone bothers) as pre-D around the age of 70 in the US based on A1C.
I suspect there is a mix of things going on, to be honest. The “healthy low-fat, high carb” Western diet is a recipe for disaster for those with a genetic predisposition towards Type 2 diabetes. It is undoubted that most Type 2s are overweight, although which comes first is a very interesting question (maybe one, maybe the other, maybe it depends…). The US has a rapidly aging population. There is an emphasis in the last couple decades on preventative health, and more routine metabolic panel testing as part of annual checkups. I was diagnosed at age 40 due to a metabolic panel in a yearly annual paid for by my employer-provided insurance. I’d never had a metabolic panel done as part of a checkup before that time. While we love to fixate on weight and diet as the primary causes of Type 2 in the US popular media, there is less focus on how sedentary our society has become. This is also
It’s undoubted that successful treatment of Type 2 has a lot to do with lifestyle changes. Losing weight is very important for many, but definitely not all, Type 2s. There are a not inconsiderable number of “skinny” Type 2s who clearly have something else going on than obesity-caused illness. There are also people like me diagnosed based on demographic criteria which turn out to be faulty.
Anyways, I think this is important to bring up, and I think you’re doing it respectfully. I think the conversation needs to happen. I’m just rambling since I’ve put a lot of thought into this. My very first question when diagnosed was “how did this happen to me?” So I started researching the basis of what I thought I knew: obesity = Type 2 diabetes in middle age. And I found it was far more complicated and muddy than that simple, but false, truism.
tl;dr: I don’t know how accurate the graphic from this article is (“Canada’s diabetes rate worse than the US: report”) having not read the actual report, but… something doesn’t seem right about the “obesity = Type 2 DM” if this is even roughly true:
What is telling about that, I believe, is that the US, New Zealand, and Canada I think have more rapidly aging populations than the rest of the OECD countries, rather than strictly greater rates of obesity.