Here is the relevant link for the U.K. from The NY Times:
While they DID have a big surge in Dec/Jan … before much vaccine was distributed … they came down rapidly during Feb, largely flattened out in March, but are beginning to drop again.
So, to me at least, they are looking pretty good at the moment in comparison to Germany and France, for example.
Here is The NY Times data for Germany, for comparison:
and for France:
I think that the U.K. is currently in a lot better shape surge-wise than either Germany or France.
The U.K. did take the bold, and somewhat controversia,l step of getting as many first doses in arms, even if it meant significant delays in getting folks their second dose well beyond the 3-4 week “optimum” window.
At this point, their BOLD decision in that regard is looking pretty smart … of course, it will be interesting to see where we all are 1-2 months from now.
“Even with the U.K.’s ongoing vaccination campaign, which started in early December, almost 50,000 people in the country died from COVID-19 in just January and February this year, equal to nearly two-thirds of the total for all of 2020”
This was from this article although March has turned out better. I have some friends that were put in lockdown mode again. Not sure if it’s ended yet.
From
This is what Canada is doing, at least some provinces (including mine) are doing it. So we’re all getting our first dose and our second won’t be for several months out. I really hope it does pay off in being able to quickly get things back under control. We certainly need as many people at least protected from severe illness as soon as possible the way cases are skyrocketing.
The most recent numbers that I have seen are that Pfizer and Moderna give you 80% protection two weeks after your first dose that only goes up to 90% after your second. So, from the perspective of broadly knocking this down, getting twice as many people to 80% IS likely the smart way to do it.
I like to look at per capita daily number of new cases. If I looked at the numbers for Canada correctly, BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario are all at 15-16 new daily cases per 100,000 residents. Today, Michigan is at 65 and riding fast, NJ is at 50, and the average across the entire US is about 20.
Hopefully, getting jabs in arms, careful mask wearing, and not opening up too much too fast will soon reverse the current surge in Canada.
Actually, trials did not determine this time as the “optimum” time.
It’s simply the time frame chosen in the trial.
It may very well be that the vaccines overall efficacy is higher if you get your second dose 2-3 months out. We don’t know because the trials didn’t try out different time frames between doses… they just chose a time frame and then told us the efficacy when using that time frame.
I would’ve preferred the United States delay second doses, but it is too late to do that now. We needed to do that a month ago at least in order to prevent or mitigate this upcoming surge.
Thank you for that correction! You are absolutely correct, we DON’T know what is optimum … we only know what was done, tested, and given EUA by the FDA.
And I agree that getting more first doses in arms would have likely helped offset the new variants and maybe even helped by having more people continue to be vigilant in mask wearing and distancing between their first and second jabs.
I read something last week and, unfortunately can’t find it again, but to the best of my recollection, it said that about 200+ people who were fully vaccinated have contracted covid after being vaccinated. Most of them had a very mild case, but (again, memory not specific) maybe 30 of them were hospitalized, only two died.
Before I ease up on masking, etc., I’d like to see more months of these statistics. If my memory is correct about the numbers in that article, and that trend continues, then about 1% of the approx. 200 died, which is no worse than the annual flu statistics.
For me, the worst thing about this pandemic is the uncertainty. I could live with someone telling me I have to wear masks, socially distance, etc., even for another whole year, but I’m finding it increasingly difficult to deal with the damned uncertainty about what is true, what isn’t, what has been proven, what is still being researched.
I think I’ll go back to bed and pull the sheets over my head now!
Out of how many total fully vaccinated people? It’s no surprise that people who were fully vaccinated contracted covid. I don’t know of anyone claiming that a vaccine prevents disease. What a vaccine does is give you a better chance of living if you do contract the disease. It’s still a gamble. But, in my opinion, it’s a good bet to make.
As I said in a different context, human beings hate statistics. When they ask whether or not something will happen, human beings do not want to be told the answer is both “yes” and “no”. But when you ask questions about what will happen in the future, statistics is the best response we have at this time.
I get that, IJ…I never thought the vaccine would be a 100% cure-all. What I am saying is that we don’t have ENOUGH statistics yet.
As for uncertainty…well, I’ve lived my life with a lot of it, and here, again, I don’t expect 100% certainty, or even close. It’s just that, because this virus is so new, and the vaccines are so new, we’re getting new information on a nearly daily basis and some of the best researchers are contradicting each other.
We will get through this, for sure, eventually. For us older people, I think we just want to know we’re going to have a few “normal” years left after this.
Here is an article that just appeared in the Atlantic talking about the uncertainty of how we should behave as long as we are only partially vaccinated:
I also take heart in a couple of things:
1.Think of all of the uncertainty and all that we DIDN’T know a year ago. We were washing our hands furiously, wiping down everything we might touch, hoarding TP, and uncertain as to whether wearing masks would help. Yikes!
We now have a pool in excess of 100M people in the US than have recurved one jab and about half that number who have been fully vaccinated. Every epidemiologist, public health officials, and biostatistician is laser-focused on answering some of the unknowns: How long does protection last? What about newer and newer variants? What are the case dynamics of vaccinated populations interacting with potentially sizable populations of unvaccinated folks? Can we begin to “return to normal” if 100% of a sub-population (say a concert or a Broadway show) are vaccinated? 90%? 80%?
I’m optimistic that by June/July we will have some pretty solid answers to many of these questions.
Amen to everything you said or quoted, John. I’ve received both of my shots, so I’m much more relaxed than I was a couple of months ago. I definitely think you’re right that we’ll probably get more of the answers we need by, at the latest, sometime this summer.
You stay safe, too, John. And all of you here on the board!
That’s an interesting analysis in the linked Atlantic article of the social dynamic during this time of a partially vaccinated society and shifting norms. I encourage everyone to read it.
This resonated with me.
The vaccines have injected hope into the conversation; they’re a tool that is raising the amount of safety we’re working with day to day. This new direction is creating a small illusion: Simply hearing “It’s getting safer” can inadvertently punt people into what Downs calls a quantum shift, into “It’s safe,” she said. The mindset of “better” is easy to conflate with “okay” or even “good.”
It’s as if we’re traversing the pandemic not only on the science and epidemiological basis but also on a psycho-social level. It reminds me of the aphorism, “Don’t give him an inch or he’ll take a mile!”
Human beings are both incredibly smart and far-sighted and yet at times emotionally short-sighted and unwise. It’s no wonder we frustrate each other so often.
